Expect a sooner and wetter monsoon this year

The Indian Meteorology Department (IMD) on Tuesday increases its estimates of the monsoon and said the country will receive rainfall “normal and above normal” with rain “well distributed” in the period of June September.

“Quantitatively, the rainfall of the rainy season in the country as a whole is likely to be 101% of the average period (LPA) with a ± 4% model error,” said Director of IMD Mrutyunjay Mohapatra while releasing the second stage of the estimated range.
In the first stage estimate in mid-April, IMD has predicted rainfall to 98% LPA with ± 5% model errors. The Monsoon Rainfall LPA in the country for the period 1961-2010 was 88 cm. The 2021 Monsoon will be the third year in a row of good rainfall and can lead to a new record of Foodgrain output as in 2019 and 2020.

However, certain bags in the country, including small areas in North-West India, Bihar, Assam, North West Bengal, Meghalaya, Ladakh, and the western part of the South Peninsula, may get rainfall “under normal” for four months. season. In northwestern India, the parts of Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, and Uttar Western Pradesh, including areas in Delhi-NCR, can fall in this category.

However, predictions indicate that there will be no shortage of rain for agricultural surgery as the whole “monsoon core zone”, consisting of agricultural areas fed in the country, is likely to get rainfall “above normal”. Monsoon onset for Kerala is estimated to be around Thursday. His gradual progress will begin Kharif (summer) sower operation which mostly depends on the rain.

Rainfall Distribution throughout India

Rain monsoons are likely to be distributed well spatially, which will lead to normal or above normal rainfall during the season in most countries, except the eastern and northeastern state.

In accordance with IMD updates, the forecast for rain of monsoons over four homogeneous regions in India are as follows:

Northwest India: Normal (92-108%)
South Peninsula: Normal (93-107%)
East and Northeast India: Under normal
Central India: above normal (106%)
Furthermore, the Indian Monsoon Core Zone, which consisted of most agricultural areas fed in the country, is expected to be above normal at 106% LPA.

Estimated weather models that are estimated to probabilistic seasonally show similar trends. Eastern and Northeast countries are estimated to witness more dry conditions than usually consistent with trends in recent years. From June to September, all the eastern part of the seventh and Bengal Sea is likely to witness only 90 to 95% of normal monsoon rainfall.

IMD, for the first time, released a map “monsoon core zone”, shows the distribution of wise rainfall as a probabilistic estimate, using the Ensemble (MME) multi-model forecasting system. Under new strategies, monthly operations (June) and seasonal operational estimates (June to September) for Southwest Monsoon’s rainfall over the country.

“The highest climate model with the highest estimate of skills in the Monsoon India area including the Monsoon Mission (MMCFS) climate forecasting system has been used to prepare MME’s forecast,” said Mohapatra.

Considered the most sophisticated and comprehensive system to achieve the estimated rainy season, the MME system allows to predict “spatial distribution” seasonal rainfall with probabilistic “predicted regional average rainfall” “monsoon core zone” (covering most India) for agricultural planning better regional levels and other activities.

Asked about a little delay in the Monsoon outside the normal date of June 1, Mohapatra said, “All criteria, so far, have not been fulfilled. We constantly monitor the system. Conditions gradually become profitable and we expect onset around June 3”