Less than in a course of a week, the Taliban had caught almost a dozen major cities in Afghanistan. With the departure of US troops, it is ready to take over the country from a fought Afghan government.
Over the period of past 20 years, the US has poured trillions of dollars into Afghanistan to overthrow the Taliban. An apparent effort was unsuccessful. But see the strategic geographical location of the country and the region’s politics (including support for the Taliban) told us that could not avoid this result.
Afghanistan is very strategically located between the Central and South Asia – rich in oil and natural gas. It has also struggled with efforts by various Afghan ethnic groups to create an ancestral homeland. The Pashtun population (at a lower level of the Baluch population) is very involved.
For this reason and others, Afghanistan has long faced interfering with the Soviet / Russian Union, England, USA, Iran, Saudi Arabia, India and of course, Pakistan.
Afghanistan’s relationship with Pakistan was full of tensions since the former was recognized as a sovereign country in 1919.
When Pakistan gained independence in 1947, Afghanistan was the only country to choose formation at the United Nations. Some tensions come from Afghans’ refusal to recognize the Durand line – a rush that drew 1,600 miles of borders that cut thousands of Pashtun tribes in 1893.
The scene of the call from Pashtun in both countries to create a national homeland which will cut North Pakistan. Pakistan has long been trying to change Afghanistan to become a state of Islamic clients. They are supporting Islamic identity (on one Pashtun) in Afghanistan to get strategic depth against India.
Pakistan helped empower the Taliban in 1994 and has become a neighbour of the most involved Afghanistan. He has carried out the Taliban operations issued through the top intelligence agent, recruiting workers to serve in Taliban forces and help plan and arm attacks.
It is also sometimes involved in direct combat support. Fill support for the Taliban is rooted in its aim to remove Pashtun nationalism. But in that, it might have created a more significant problem for Pakistan because Taliban rules have led to the exodus of Afghans to Pakistan.
However, according to the Afghan government, there are elements in the Pakistani government, namely the content, which still supports the Taliban, and sustainable instability in Afghanistan. Furthermore, Pakistan has no good relationship with other groups in Afghanistan, so it has little choice but to support the Taliban.
For the Pakistani government, the worst scenario is a protracted conflict, which can cause many refugees to Pakistan.
Iranian Relations Iran with Afghanistan, which borders the east, is also complicated by regional dynamics and its relationship with the US. As a Shia state, Iran has had a long ideological difference from the Taliban. In the 1990s, it tried to ally, including the US, to fight threats from the Taliban.
But two decades later, the US relations with the Iran were in a low-time position, influencing Iran’s attitude about dealing with the Taliban. Iran has protected chiefly its bets – supporting the Afghan government and the Taliban to make them divided. And increased relations with Qatar – home to the Taliban political office – also helps Iran’s relationship with the Taliban.
Russia and China Russia are primarily concerned about preventing instability on its borders with Afghanistan and maintaining the influence of Afghanistan Afghanistan. Since the 1990s, Moscow has developed a relationship with various groups in Afghanistan. Including the Taliban, even though there are doubts about the possibility of Taliban support for terror groups.
This relationship increased after the emergence of the Islamic State in 2015. In the struggle to be defeated was in Afghanistan, Russia saw the interests of the Taliban coinciding with him himself.
The report appeared that Russia armed the Afghan Taliban and directly damaged US efforts, even paid the gift to kill allied soldiers and us. US intelligence has since expressed its low confidence in claims of gifts.
China, meanwhile, always maintains a friendly relationship with the Taliban. China’s primary concern is to extend its influence to the west to get strategic depth against India and the US.
For now, the rise of the Taliban has not been translated into an increase in terrorist activity from groups. Such as Al-Qaeda against neighbouring Afghanistan – US concerns out of the region.
Feeling the wishes of the Taliban increase, an opportunistic alliance has been formed. With almost all neighbours of Afghanistan with the Taliban, except for India.
India is mainly reluctant to engage with the Taliban, but the new contract begins, supported by Qatar. However, New Delhi has also explained that it will not support the overthrow of Kabul. The capital of Afghanistan, which the Taliban have not controlled.
At present, the surrounding Afghan government claims that neighbours are too optimistic about the Taliban, their ability to reform and whether it will be a great help for Afghanistan to achieve stability. Afghan senior officials have warned that the Taliban victory will result in the power consolidation of various terrorist groups if the Taliban allows them to form a base to launch attacks.
More important than the Taliban hospitality is his willingness to enable terror groups to be freely involved in organized crime – Afghanistan attractive location for this too.
The rise of the Taliban has created an acute humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan with terrible human rights violations. Amid the chaos, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan accused the US to leave “chaos”.
However, while many can criticize US President Joe Biden for attracting troops, there is a slight possibility, considering all these regional forces in the workplace, that the US can achieve stability in Afghanistan – no matter how long.